The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical wave traveling toward the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida as Invest 97L, and forecasters are already chiming the alarms for Gulf Coast residents.
Thursday afternoon, the NHC increased the chances that Invest 97L could develop within the next 48 hours to 30%, with the chance it could develop over the next seven days remaining at 70%.
NHC forecasters say the tropical wave could develop this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida peninsula, with some of the first spaghetti models backing up the claim.
Tropics update in 60 seconds:How could tropical wave affect Florida? Everything you need to know in less than a minute
Early spaghetti models show Invest 97L moving into the Gulf of Mexico, where the lack of steering currents means it could rapidly gain strength before making its way toward land − where that would be is still anyone's guess.
"Thelatest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. "Residents from Louisiana to Florida's West Coast have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies."
If Invest 97L continues to develop and reaches sustained wind speeds of 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, marking the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Latest tropics update
Invest 97L is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
The system is expected to develop slowly over the next day or so while it moves northwest over portions of the Greater Antilles, according to the latest NHC advisory.
Environmental conditions are conducive for the development of Invest 97L after it passees the Greater Antilles. The NHC believes it could form a tropical depression over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida peninsula this weekend or early next week.
On Wednesday, the tropical rainstorm stretched across a few hundred miles and lacks a well-defined center, which is a characteristic typical of most tropical depressions and tropical storms.
The tropical rainstorm, a term AccuWeather is using to help raise public awareness, is near the northern Caribbean. The system has continued to become more organized.
Invest 97L began showing notable signs that a center of circulation was starting to form along the northern coast of Hispaniola on Thursday, according to AccuWeather. The tropical wave lacks strong winds as of now.
"A storm center that remains over or close to the large, mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola and Cuba will tend to keep strengthening at bay," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, adding, "If the center forms or drifts away from the large islands, then more swift strengthening may be possible."
Recent changes to the way the NHC presents its tropical outlook map may confuse some people. Right now, the orange area represents where a tropical cyclone could develop; it's not an indicator of where the storm will travel.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.
Will Invest 97L become a tropical depression, Tropical Storm Debby?
We are in the wait-and-see phase at the moment. Invest 97L is still disorganized, producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Forecasters will have a better idea of how the tropical wave will develop over the next few days.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula.
Residents in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
Invest 97L spaghetti models
Will Invest 97L impact Florida?
"Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
"Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least," AccuWeather said.
"As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.
"Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf Coast."
How will Invest 97L impact the Gulf Coast?
"The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.
"There is low steering flow in the eastern Gulf so once it gets there, it's kind of stuck and over warm water, it can intensify. At this point, it can go almost anywhere. There's just nothing in the Gulf to steer it and there's very concerning.
"I don't trust it and don't like it. Residents from Louisiana toFlorida's West Coast andPanhandle have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies. And if it sits there (in the Gulf) it can intensify. The slower it moves, the stronger it can become."
Pastelok said forecasters will have a better idea of what will happen once the invest moves through the Caribbean islands and mountains, which could slow development and organization.
"Sunday, it could blow up in the eastern Gulf."
Meteorologists have also warned that the impending tropical wave will begin churning waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which will produce stronger rip currents at a greater frequency as it approaches.
What is a tropical wave?
At its simplest, a tropical wave is an elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms that typically move from east to west. It's also known as aneasterly wave,according to the National Weather Service.
Diving a little deeper, a tropical wave is an area of low pressure in the atmosphere that moves west across the Atlantic basin, which includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Want even more? The National Hurricane Center describes a tropical wave as "a trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade-wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere."
Tropical waves are usually seen on weather maps as straight or dashed brown or red lines.
